The Quiet Collapse: Poland's fertility decline
What drove Polish fertility down between 2002 and 2024, and what the population looks like in 2080 if it holds. GUS register data, cohort-component projection, PCA + k-means, raincloud plots. Finding: modal age of first birth has sat at 26-27 since the mid-1980s, so this is a quantum shift, not postponement.
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